Silver Gems

1️⃣ Industrial Demand Trends - The Structural Story

 

The industrial demand picture is transformative and represents a genuine paradigm shift:

 

Solar Energy (The Dominant Driver) 

Solar photovoltaic demand jumped from 11% of industrial silver consumption in 2014 to 29% in 2024. The critical issue? New solar cell technologies like TOPCon and Silicon Heterojunction cells use 1.5 to 2 times more silver per gigawatt than current PERC cells. This means even with "thrifting" (reducing silver content per cell), total demand keeps rising.By 2030, supply may meet only 62-70% of total demand, which is projected at 48,000-54,000 tons per year. The solar industry alone could require 10,000-14,000 tons annually.

 

Electric Vehicles & AI Data Centers 

Automotive silver demand is forecast to grow at 3.4% annually between 2025-2031, with EVs overtaking internal combustion engines as the primary source by 2027. EVs use 25-50 grams of silver versus 15-28 grams in traditional vehicles.Global IT data center power capacity increased 53-fold from 0.93 GW in 2000 to nearly 50 GW in 2025, driven heavily by AI infrastructure expansion.

 

The Arithmetic Problem 

The silver market is in its fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficits, with inventories at multi-decade lows. Much of global silver production comes as a by-product of base-metal mining, limiting responsiveness to higher prices. Mining companies can't simply "turn on" new silver production even at $90+ prices.

 

 

2️⃣ Technical Analysis - Price Discovery Territory

 

Current Market Status (as of January 20, 2026) 

Silver jumped more than 5% to $94.5 per ounce on Monday, hitting a new record high, driven by US President Donald Trump's threats to impose tariffs on eight European nations over Greenland.

 

Technical Indicators 

Technical readings show silver trading well above its 20/50/100/200-day moving average cluster, with a stretched 14-day RSI around 70.6 and a high ADX near 62, indicating a powerful established trend.A sustained break above $90.90 opens the door toward $94.60-95.81 and $98.74-99.46, with a longer-term secular target near $101.15.

 

Support and Resistance Levels

Key support: $69-70 per ounce rangeImmediate resistance: $82-84 per ounce (already broken through)Next targets: $85-90 levels, with potential to surge toward $100

 

Risk Factors 

After such a vertical move, the risk of a meaningful correction is growing, with momentum indicators stretched across multiple timeframes. The market is technically overbought, but as one analyst noted, momentum remains skewed to the upside.

 

Gold-to-Silver Ratio 

The gold-to-silver ratio has compressed to approximately 51:1 as of January 2026, down from extreme levels near 100:1 earlier in the decade. Historical averages sit at 40-60, suggesting silver could have more room to outperform gold.

 

 

3️⃣ Institutional Forecasts - Wall Street's View

 

Here's where it gets really interesting - major banks are remarkably bullish:

 

Goldman Sachs 

Goldman Sachs expects silver to average between $85-100 per ounce in 2026, viewing it as the primary strategic metal of the green transition.

 

JPMorgan 

Silver prices are forecast to rise toward $58/oz by the fourth quarter, averaging $56/oz for the full year. (Note: This forecast appears conservative given current prices already exceed $90.)

 

Citigroup 

Citi's more aggressive models point toward $110 in the second half of 2026.

 

UBS 

UBS expects silver to continue outperforming gold in 2026, targeting levels around $95 an ounce.

 

Independent Forecasters 

GoldSilver's Alan Hibbard expects silver to perform better in 2026 than 2025, stating he wouldn't be surprised to see silver increase by over $100 per ounce to $175+.

 

Context for Your COMEX Contract Document- Below:

 

The timing of the 100-ounce silver futures launch (February 9, 2026) is fascinating. The standard COMEX silver contract is 5,000 ounces - at $94/oz, that's $470,000 of exposure. The new 100-ounce contract ($9,400 at current prices) makes silver futures accessible to:Smaller institutional playersRetail traders who previously couldn't afford standard contractsIndustrial users hedging smaller quantitiesThis could amplify the current rally by bringing new participants into an already tight market with stretched inventories.

 

Bottom Line

 

This isn't a typical commodity rally - it's a structural re-rating driven by:

 

Arithmetic deficit: Demand exceeds supply by 160-200 million ounces annually

Irreversible consumption: Solar silver isn't recycled

Supply inelasticity: 72-75% of silver is mined as a by-product

Multiple demand drivers accelerating simultaneously (solar, EVs, AI)

Safe-haven flows on top of industrial demand

 

The technical picture shows an overheated market that could correct, but the fundamental story suggests any dips would likely be bought aggressively. The range of forecasts ($56-$175+) reflects genuine uncertainty about how high this structural deficit can drive prices.